According to Gallup, Kerry won the debate... BUT

more voters support Bush's tactics against terror and in Iraq.

From Gallup.com: John Kerry won the debate Thursday night, 53% to 37%, according to a random sample of 615 registered voters who watched the event. Almost half of the viewers said they felt more favorable about the senator because of the debate, and 60% said Kerry expressed himself more clearly than did President Bush. Despite the positive assessment, viewers said they favored Bush in handling the war in Iraq and serving as commander in chief, little changed from opinions expressed before the debate. And a majority of viewers said it was Bush who better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.

It is important to point out that the pool used in this sample were 36% Republican and 32% Democrat or Independent; so we're seeing the beliefs of a greater number of Republicans vs. Independents/Democrats (it's likely that a number of those Independents do not support either candidate as strongly as a registered party member.)

ETA: Not sure what the make-up of the remaining part of the pool, though.

scary, don. scary.

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Posted by lesleyw

It is important to point out that the pool used in this sample were 36% Republican and 32% Democrat or Independent; so we're seeing the beliefs of a greater number of Republicans vs. Independents/Democrats (it's likely that a number of those Independents do not support either candidate as strongly as a registered party member.)

ETA: Not sure what the make-up of the remaining part of the pool, though.

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Out of 615 people, the 4% you're talking about amounts to not even 25 people. Not that big a difference IMO.

CNN Link


Here is a quote from the article...

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By narrow margins, Bush came out better on believability, likeability and toughness. But there was virtually no change among those polled on which candidate would handle Iraq better or make a better commander-in-chief.

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Posted by eogara

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Posted by lesleyw

It is important to point out that the pool used in this sample were 36% Republican and 32% Democrat or Independent; so we're seeing the beliefs of a greater number of Republicans vs. Independents/Democrats (it's likely that a number of those Independents do not support either candidate as strongly as a registered party member.)

ETA: Not sure what the make-up of the remaining part of the pool, though.

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Out of 615 people, the 4% you're talking about amounts to not even 25 people. Not that big a difference IMO.

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It's a huge difference when these polls are pretending to be 'random' and 'objective.' Would you feel the same way if they asked more democrats than republicans?

This is why I never, ever trust polls.

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Posted by sweetadeline

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Posted by eogara

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Posted by lesleyw

It is important to point out that the pool used in this sample were 36% Republican and 32% Democrat or Independent; so we're seeing the beliefs of a greater number of Republicans vs. Independents/Democrats (it's likely that a number of those Independents do not support either candidate as strongly as a registered party member.)

ETA: Not sure what the make-up of the remaining part of the pool, though.

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Out of 615 people, the 4% you're talking about amounts to not even 25 people. Not that big a difference IMO.

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It's a huge difference when these polls are pretending to be 'random' and 'objective.' Would you feel the same way if they asked more democrats than republicans?

This is why I never, ever trust polls.

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Of course I would! A poll always has a margin of error, generally +/- 2 or 3%. If you pay attention to the origin of the information and the techniques used in extracting the sample and asking the questions, there is so much to be gained from polls and studies based on random samples.

I should say, though, that I'm a social scientiest by nature and trade so I'm very big into research and methodology, especially experiments involving random samples.

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Of course I would! A poll always has a margin of error, generally +/- 2 or 3%. If you pay attention to the origin of the information and the techniques used in extracting the sample and asking the questions, there is so much to be gained from polls and studies based on random samples.

I should say, though, that I'm a social scientiest by nature and trade so I'm very big into research and methodology, especially experiments involving random samples.

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Eogara, you work in the social sciences? I teach a lot of social science students, and I'm wondering if you can point me toward some interesting articles about polling. Do you have any? TIA!

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Posted by sweetadeline

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Of course I would! A poll always has a margin of error, generally +/- 2 or 3%. If you pay attention to the origin of the information and the techniques used in extracting the sample and asking the questions, there is so much to be gained from polls and studies based on random samples.

I should say, though, that I'm a social scientiest by nature and trade so I'm very big into research and methodology, especially experiments involving random samples.

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Eogara, you work in the social sciences? I teach a lot of social science students, and I'm wondering if you can point me toward some interesting articles about polling. Do you have any? TIA!

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Fun project!! Ok, let me look into this and I'll get back to you.