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I had 3 no-shows. 2 I knew about before hand and 1 just didn't show up. We were able to take those 2 off the day before, I think and the one we ate. I wouldn't give them a smaller number just because it would be awkward for them to have to set another place.
I have heard to give your final headcount down 2 people from what you are expecting because it happens at so many weddings. My sister had a 70 person wedding, and 4 people were no shows. So rude.
