Prices to fall...even if by a little?

I was just wondering if anyone here was waiting to buy for housing prices to fall (even if it is just a little) .... I know it is all a matter of speculation (and that most people on this board already actually own homes, defeating the purpose of my survey), but I have seen the 'housing bubble' publicized so much lately, that it just makes me curious.... Are the prices of homes, and some of the current predictions enough to make people wait, or do you all feel it is all still a good enough long term investment not to worry...Just curious

I wouldn't expect the prices to go down...they are in too much demand

IMO...the value of houses aren't going to fall at all they will probably just level out. And even if they fell a little it will not be sooo much that it will be worth waiting for.

What will start happening is the interest rates will slowly be going up... Another reason NOT to wait..

While I think in other areas of the country they will start to fall in October/November and further in coming years as the boomers migrate to the warmer climates on LI realestate is a premium. There just isn't much more to be developed and I don't see this market dropping. Maybe some of the 3 bedroom 1 bath capes in western Nassau will drop a bit from the 500K they are at (ridiculous I agree) but as long as developers are grabbing them up and as long as there are people willing to pay the prices - and in NY there will always be the prices won't go down by much.

JMO but be ready for the NYC'ers to head out further on LI and drive up prices even more in the coming year.

Again JMO I could be totally wrong.

This is featured in today's 'Investor's Business Daily'

Fed chief Alan Greenspan on May 20 voiced concerns over 'froth' in many local markets but downplayed risks of a national bubble. Similar sentiment was echoed in minutes from the Fed's May 3 meeting. They showed central bankers slightly more cautious of a slower economy but still firmly focused on inflation.

Existing single-family home sales soared last month by 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.81 million, the National Association of Realtors said. Economists expected sales nearly flat with March's 6.87 million.

Demand (and prices) continue ever upward thanks to still-low mortgage rates despite rising short-term interest rates.

'In some areas it's looking pretty bubbly, but I think it'll continue to bubble for a while,' said David Wyss, Standard and Poor's chief economist. 'Overpriced or not, people want to buy houses and see them as good deals because you can lock in such low interest rates.'

The median sales price for a U.S. home rose 15% to $206,000 vs. a year ago. That's the sharpest yearly gain in a quarter century, thanks in part to 30-year mortgage rates that keep falling.

In the latest week they hit 5.71%, down from April's 5.83% and March's 5.93%.

'A new record is a bit unexpected, but so is the performance of mortgage interest rates, which have been lower than forecast,' said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. 'Certainly there are some select areas where there could be some 'froth'.'

Economists still view April's home sales data as a rush to lock in low interest rates. Most see mortgage rates rising and demand slowing after a record 2004.

The Fed pondered housing as well on May 3, when it hiked the federal funds rate by another quarter point, its 8th straight such move over the past year, to 3%.

From my point of few....

I live in a town with middle class families....when we brought our house three years ago we paid a little below $400K which we thought was crazy...since then the houses have been going for 450K or much higher...and people were buying them...now i noticed that the houses going for 550K or above are just not selling...not in a middle class town...people just can't afford that type of mortgage and tax payments.....so me and DH feel it is starting to level out.

The 'froth' is one of the main points that I have been hearing/thinking about... Thanks for all of your opinions everyone...I love just getting some perspective...

I am not holding off but we aren't going to buy until end of year anyway b/c we are moving back to LI after I finish my MBA.

I think if you buy and get a 30 year mortgage it's much safer than no-interest or ARM mortgage- at least that is what I've read.

I think something is going on- even Greenspan has urged caution- so I am interested to see what happens.

Home sales are at an all time high right now:

US new home sales set record in April

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Sales of new US homes edged up 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.316 million, an all-time record, the Commerce Department reported.

March's sales pace was revised lower to 1.313 million annualized from 1.431 million.

Economists were expecting a decline to about 1.328 million in April.

Along with Tuesday's data showing a record level of existing home sales, the report confirms that the US housing sector continues to grow at a hot pace, despite concerns about a real estate bubble.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors said turnover of existing homes rose 4.5 percent to a record 7.18 million annual pace.

Wednesday's Commerce Department report showed the median sales price of a new home rose 3.8 percent year-over-year to 230,800 dollars.

The number of unsold new houses rose 0.2 percent to 440,000, a 4.1-month supply at the April sales pace.

The hot housing market is fueled by still-low interest rates, rising incomes and a widespread belief that real estate is the best investment.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he saw signs of 'froth' in some local housing markets, but said there was no national speculative bubble in housing.

The government cautions that its housing data are extremely volatile and subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. It can take up to six months for a new trend in sales to emerge.

In the past six months, sales have averaged a record 1.25 million annualized, unchanged from a month ago.

In all of 2004, 1.203 million new homes were sold.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050525/pl_afp/useconomyhousing_050525145450

that is new home sales
different than existing home sales- which is what goes on in LI/NYC

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Posted by Sassyz75

that is new home sales
different than existing home sales- which is what goes on in LI/NYC

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I posted that info because I do not know of one area in suffolk county where I do not see building occurring right now. Long Island is losing a lot of its land towards the construction of new homes, townhouses, and condos. Many people buy existing homes, but being someone who is looking to purchase in the near future, every new construction area I see - I call and the house is already sold! New home sales are growing in Long Island.